FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.14 – 108.77

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.3 ±11.2

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 2.66Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 101.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 101.27Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±12.7

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 41.33Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 36.84Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 30.6Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11350, 3748, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 3748, 686

Auto

43.1 22%

Teleop

100.6 51%

Endgame

52.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6863, 623, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 623, 8622

Auto

25.1 24%

Teleop

54.2 51%

Endgame

26.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.1pts

Blue projected score108.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.4
Score range: 83–231
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 145.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.3Season APEX153.6

43.1Auto25.1

100.6Teleop54.2

52.3Endgame26

63Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	25
teleop	161	72
endgame	60	45
foul	30	0
total	297	142

Result

Final score

297 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Match videos

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