FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.36 – 199.13

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±11

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 6.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 65.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 112.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±9.8

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 124.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 14.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 60.28Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8726, 4541, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 4541, 8592

Auto

44.7 25%

Teleop

100.8 56%

Endgame

34.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1629, 1719, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 1719, 2377

Auto

40.7 21%

Teleop

113.7 58%

Endgame

42.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.4pts

Blue projected score199.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.8
Score range: 158–225
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.3Season APEX397.9

44.7Auto40.7

100.8Teleop113.7

34.4Endgame42.5

39Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	66
teleop	68	109
endgame	50	53
foul	0	10
total	163	238

Result

Final score

163 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Match videos

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