FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.43 – 148.99

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

453 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.2 ±9.9

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 151.63Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 9.43Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 155.37Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.3 ±11

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 41.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 53.99Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 53.16Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 2534, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 2534, 836

Auto

58.2 19%

Teleop

185.8 60%

Endgame

66.8 21%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 339, 1418, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 1418, 1389

Auto

18.8 13%

Teleop

85.4 60%

Endgame

38.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score316.4pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.4
Score range: 123–342
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.2Season APEX270.3

58.2Auto18.8

185.8Teleop85.4

66.8Endgame38.3

0Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	31
teleop	290	78
endgame	95	30
foul	5	0
total	453	139

Result

Final score

453 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts

Match videos

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