FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.36 – 159.41

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.3

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 8.05Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 117.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 102.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.5

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 22.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 65.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 71.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 1727, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1727, 614

Auto

37.4 17%

Teleop

130.9 59%

Endgame

55.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 11318, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 11318, 9033

Auto

29.0 19%

Teleop

83.1 54%

Endgame

42.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score159.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69
Score range: 131–256
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 153.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.7Season APEX307.1

37.4Auto29

130.9Teleop83.1

55.2Endgame42.3

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	56
teleop	48	92
endgame	15	46
foul	15	0
total	111	0

Result

Final score

111 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 pts

Match videos

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