FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.32 – 145.11

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±11

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 7Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 66.96Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 114.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.5

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 18.07Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 60.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 66.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8726, 4541, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 4541, 8592

Auto

43.7 24%

Teleop

106.9 58%

Endgame

34.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 11318, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 11318, 9033

Auto

28.8 20%

Teleop

75.8 54%

Endgame

36.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.3pts

Blue projected score145.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 118–215
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.3Season APEX307.1

43.7Auto28.8

106.9Teleop75.8

34.5Endgame36.8

47Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	30
teleop	56	133
endgame	27	81
foul	0	15
total	125	259

Result

Final score

125 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 pts

Match videos

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