FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.19 – 230.9

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

321 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.2 ±9.9

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 161.47Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 20.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 164.45Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.3

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 8.37Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 118.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 103.72Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 2534, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 2534, 836

Auto

60.1 18%

Teleop

206.5 61%

Endgame

72.6 21%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 1727, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1727, 614

Auto

36.3 16%

Teleop

128.3 57%

Endgame

60.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score346.2pts

Blue projected score230.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.3
Score range: 204–373
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.2Season APEX477.7

60.1Auto36.3

206.5Teleop128.3

72.6Endgame60.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	44
teleop	188	147
endgame	91	23
foul	0	0
total	321	214

Result

Final score

321 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts