FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.58 – 184.07

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.3 ±11.2

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 6.09Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 105.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 103.45Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±11

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 5.55Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 65.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 112.95Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11350, 3748, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 3748, 686

Auto

47.3 23%

Teleop

108.1 53%

Endgame

47.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8726, 4541, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 4541, 8592

Auto

45.3 25%

Teleop

100.2 55%

Endgame

35.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.6pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 157–242
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.3Season APEX291.3

47.3Auto45.3

108.1Teleop100.2

47.2Endgame35.9

37Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	33
teleop	83	147
endgame	40	25
foul	5	5
total	174	210

Result

Final score

174 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 pts

Match videos

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