FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.36 – 117.59

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 135.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±10.7

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 99.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -7.55Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 38.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292 ±12.4

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 38.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 69.42Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 9.88Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 8622, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 8622, 1727

Auto

18.5 14%

Teleop

70.6 54%

Endgame

41.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11350, 1629, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 1629, 2963

Auto

18.5 15%

Teleop

69.6 58%

Endgame

31.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.4pts

Blue projected score117.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 94–154
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 132.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.1Season APEX292

18.5Auto18.5

70.6Teleop69.6

41.6Endgame31.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	160	98
endgame	114	65
foul	5	0
total	316	203

Result

Final score

316 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 135.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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