FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.03 – 195.41

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.4 ±11.7

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 59.71Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 41.75Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 94.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±10.4

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 59.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 111.09Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 24.61Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6863, 11318, 2849

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 11318, 2849

Auto

29.8 15%

Teleop

110.1 56%

Endgame

55.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4541, 1389, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 1389, 2377

Auto

30.0 15%

Teleop

120.3 62%

Endgame

43.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196pts

Blue projected score195.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 172–219
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 129.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.4Season APEX318.4

29.8Auto30

110.1Teleop120.3

55.9Endgame43.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	32
teleop	93	93
endgame	46	19
foul	0	15
total	155	159

Result

Final score

155 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.