FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.01 – 85.47

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.7 ±13.3

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 10.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 32.79Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 42.51Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±11

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 17.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 55.75Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 12.04Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7770, 8622, 6863

/ 100 compat

Projected

86 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7770, 8622, 6863

Auto

17.6 21%

Teleop

46.1 56%

Endgame

19.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1719, 1389, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 1389, 2534

Auto

20.8 24%

Teleop

42.4 49%

Endgame

24.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.5
Score range: 59–112
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 143.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.7Season APEX230.8

17.6Auto20.8

46.1Teleop42.4

19Endgame24.1

15Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	22
teleop	29	29
endgame	26	2
foul	0	0
total	75	53

Result

Final score

75 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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