FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.7 – 68.86

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.9 ±9.3

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 97.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 102.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 89.62Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.9 ±12.2

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -0.87Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 11.49Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 58.24Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 8592, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1727, 8592, 686

Auto

59.1 21%

Teleop

156.0 54%

Endgame

71.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1111, 2849, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 2849, 2377

Auto

8.2 13%

Teleop

34.6 54%

Endgame

20.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289.7pts

Blue projected score68.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220.8
Score range: 43–316
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.9Season APEX203.9

59.1Auto8.2

156Teleop34.6

71.6Endgame20.7

11Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	16
teleop	293	36
endgame	83	18
foul	5	5
total	437	75

Result

Final score

437 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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