FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.4 – 184.89

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189 ±12.2

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 29.43Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 37.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 43.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.3 ±11.7

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 63.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.27Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 102.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3714, 623, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 623, 339

Auto

24.0 25%

Teleop

51.0 53%

Endgame

21.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4541, 11211, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 11211, 3748

Auto

32.9 18%

Teleop

96.0 54%

Endgame

50.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score184.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.5
Score range: 84–211
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189Season APEX270.3

24Auto32.9

51Teleop96

21.8Endgame50.5

40Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	48
teleop	47	118
endgame	23	43
foul	0	0
total	104	209

Result

Final score

104 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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