FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.54 – 271.51

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±12.8

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 24.85Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 62.62Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 2.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.1 ±10.7

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -4.79Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 150.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 125.78Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1446, 9033, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1446, 9033, 11350

Auto

18.9 23%

Teleop

48.9 58%

Endgame

15.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2914, 2199, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2914, 2199, 1629

Auto

64.3 24%

Teleop

151.6 56%

Endgame

54.7 20%

Strengths

· 2199 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score271.5pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -182
Score range: 65–297
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.6Season APEX476.1

18.9Auto64.3

48.9Teleop151.6

15.8Endgame54.7

27Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	64
teleop	51	183
endgame	38	40
foul	0	0
total	115	287

Result

Final score

115 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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