FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.54 – 25.02

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.7 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 61.64Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 14.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 17.61Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 93.9 ±13.9

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 5.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 12.06Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 7.49Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 2963, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 2963, 4505

Auto

14.0 16%

Teleop

44.8 52%

Endgame

27.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2912, 10449, 1915

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2912, 10449, 1915

Auto

15.1 50%

Teleop

8.8 29%

Endgame

6.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.5pts

Blue projected score25pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.5
Score range: -1–120
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.7Season APEX93.9

14Auto15.1

44.8Teleop8.8

27.6Endgame6.5

26Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	29	1
endgame	7	4
foul	5	0
total	64	17

Result

Final score

64 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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