FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.1 – 157.01

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±11.6

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 57.04Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 37.56Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 53.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±9.8

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 94.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 18.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 44.17Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1389, 623, 1418

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1389, 623, 1418

Auto

24.5 17%

Teleop

87.2 60%

Endgame

34.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 614, 1719, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 614, 1719, 339

Auto

35.1 24%

Teleop

86.4 60%

Endgame

21.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score157pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.9
Score range: 122–183
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.7Season APEX365.9

24.5Auto35.1

87.2Teleop86.4

34.1Endgame21.9

28Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	30
teleop	71	72
endgame	40	49
foul	0	0
total	144	151

Result

Final score

144 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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