FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.63 – 172.92

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±11.7

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.46Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 98.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 0.4Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±10.5

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 152.47Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 13.24Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 7.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11211, 1727, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 1727, 1111

Auto

18.4 16%

Teleop

55.7 49%

Endgame

40.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2199, 2534, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 2534, 10679

Auto

40.1 23%

Teleop

91.6 53%

Endgame

40.1 23%

Strengths

· 2199 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score172.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.3
Score range: 93–199
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323Season APEX319.6

18.4Auto40.1

55.7Teleop91.6

40.6Endgame40.1

49Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	31
teleop	57	74
endgame	33	35
foul	0	15
total	113	155

Result

Final score

113 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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