FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.19 – 324.07

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±11.7

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 11.28Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 61.37Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 61.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.4 ±10.5

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 50.58Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 108Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 165.49Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10449, 9033, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 9033, 4541

Auto

27.1 21%

Teleop

80.9 64%

Endgame

19.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6863, 8592, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 8592, 836

Auto

51.2 16%

Teleop

189.2 59%

Endgame

80.8 25%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score324.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.9
Score range: 109–349
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX468.4

27.1Auto51.2

80.9Teleop189.2

19.2Endgame80.8

40Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	65
teleop	74	177
endgame	33	6
foul	0	0
total	142	248

Result

Final score

142 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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