FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.16 – 57.55

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±10.5

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 105.75Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 11.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 94.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±12.4

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 1.41Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -5.7Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 61.84Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3748, 8726, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3748, 8726, 686

Auto

52.2 26%

Teleop

100.7 49%

Endgame

50.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11350, 2914, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 2914, 11318

Auto

19.5 35%

Teleop

14.4 25%

Endgame

22.6 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.2pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.6
Score range: 33–236
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.1Season APEX282.9

52.2Auto19.5

100.7Teleop14.4

50.9Endgame22.6

33Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	30
teleop	71	5
endgame	47	19
foul	0	0
total	161	54

Result

Final score

161 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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