FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.74 – 54.23

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±11.7

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 118.3Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 9.86Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 27.58Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107.3 ±13.9

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 11.85Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 14.34Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 28.04Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 4505, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 4505, 8622

Auto

32.6 21%

Teleop

90.9 59%

Endgame

30.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2849, 7770, 1446

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 7770, 1446

Auto

10.9 19%

Teleop

27.1 46%

Endgame

20.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.7pts

Blue projected score54.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.5
Score range: 28–182
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 141.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.8Season APEX107.3

32.6Auto10.9

90.9Teleop27.1

30.7Endgame20.3

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	10
teleop	122	3
endgame	62	4
foul	0	0
total	224	17

Result

Final score

224 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.