FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.09 – 157.99

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.3 ±11.7

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 38.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 3.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 25.5Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±12.2

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 3.91Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 102.97Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 51.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 10679, 1446

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 10679, 1446

Auto

14.0 23%

Teleop

28.4 47%

Endgame

18.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2912, 3748, 1418

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2912, 3748, 1418

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

88.4 57%

Endgame

38.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.1pts

Blue projected score158pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.9
Score range: 39–186
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.3Season APEX221.3

14Auto27.1

28.4Teleop88.4

18.3Endgame38.8

33Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	20	124
endgame	21	47
foul	0	0
total	58	199

Result

Final score

58 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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