FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

44.32 – 27.08

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.2 ±13.3

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 11.12Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 29.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 4.09Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±12.8

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 13.74Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 5.57Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 7.77Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 3714, 2912

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 3714, 2912

Auto

17.5 43%

Teleop

14.9 37%

Endgame

8.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2963, 10679, 1915

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 10679, 1915

Auto

16.2 68%

Teleop

-6.0 0%

Endgame

13.8 58%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.3pts

Blue projected score27.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.2
Score range: 1–70
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.2Season APEX143.2

17.5Auto16.2

14.9Teleop-6

8.4Endgame13.8

10Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	26	9
endgame	11	2
foul	0	0
total	54	20

Result

Final score

54 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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