FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.62 – 157.81

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.7 ±11.7

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 11.34Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -6.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 97.63Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.9 ±11.2

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 60.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 93.95Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 3.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8726, 2914, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 2914, 1727

Auto

28.6 27%

Teleop

49.8 47%

Endgame

26.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4541, 686, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 686, 11350

Auto

41.1 29%

Teleop

70.8 49%

Endgame

31.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score157.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.2
Score range: 77–184
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.7Season APEX403.9

28.6Auto41.1

49.8Teleop70.8

26.7Endgame31.7

32Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	34
teleop	37	68
endgame	54	39
foul	0	10
total	113	151

Result

Final score

113 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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