FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.79 – 280.21

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.8 ±11

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 12.08Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 45.65Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 60.06Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.9 ±9.8

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 163Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 58.09Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 59.12Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4505, 339, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 339, 1389

Auto

17.0 15%

Teleop

61.7 55%

Endgame

32.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 836, 2377, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 2377, 9033

Auto

44.6 17%

Teleop

156.2 58%

Endgame

66.9 25%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score280.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.4
Score range: 92–306
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.8Season APEX452.9

17Auto44.6

61.7Teleop156.2

32.5Endgame66.9

16Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	72	205
endgame	6	78
foul	0	0
total	98	303

Result

Final score

98 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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