FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.5 – 168.6

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.6 ±10.7

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 94.02Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 59.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 26.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.9 ±12.4

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.73Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 28.77Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 120.1Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 11318, 3714

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 614, 11318, 3714

Auto

43.2 26%

Teleop

85.8 52%

Endgame

37.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11211, 1446, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 1446, 1629

Auto

33.9 20%

Teleop

97.4 57%

Endgame

40.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.5pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.9
Score range: 143–206
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 142.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.6Season APEX305.9

43.2Auto33.9

85.8Teleop97.4

37.3Endgame40.7

13Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	38
teleop	116	86
endgame	48	33
foul	5	0
total	206	157

Result

Final score

206 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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