FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.69 – 199.05

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 104.7 ±13.3

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 14.12Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 14.82Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 40.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±11.7

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 6.83Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 46.39Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 145.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2849, 2963, 623

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 2963, 623

Auto

18.0 27%

Teleop

25.9 39%

Endgame

21.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10449, 6863, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 6863, 2199

Auto

41.8 21%

Teleop

114.3 58%

Endgame

42.0 21%

Strengths

· 2199 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.7pts

Blue projected score199.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.4
Score range: 44–225
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 142.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

104.7Season APEX294.5

18Auto41.8

25.9Teleop114.3

21.7Endgame42

50Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	50
teleop	20	142
endgame	15	41
foul	0	0
total	55	233

Result

Final score

55 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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