FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.48 – 229.94

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±12.8

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 29.09Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 9.58Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 20.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.8 ±11

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 113.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 112.42Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 3.68Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8622, 1915, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 1915, 1719

Auto

12.6 21%

Teleop

30.1 50%

Endgame

17.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 3748, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 3748, 1111

Auto

53.1 24%

Teleop

121.6 54%

Endgame

48.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.5pts

Blue projected score229.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.5
Score range: 33–256
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.1Season APEX330.8

12.6Auto53.1

30.1Teleop121.6

17.4Endgame48.6

1Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	14
teleop	8	104
endgame	6	44
foul	5	5
total	38	167

Result

Final score

38 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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