FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.07 – 91.68

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±11.7

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 61.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 62.37Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 3.1Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.8 ±13.3

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 10.14Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 60.49Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 21.05Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9033, 1389, 2912

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 1389, 2912

Auto

26.3 21%

Teleop

75.3 60%

Endgame

23.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11350, 1418, 7770

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 1418, 7770

Auto

12.5 14%

Teleop

52.7 60%

Endgame

22.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.1pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.4
Score range: 66–153
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.7Season APEX150.8

26.3Auto12.5

75.3Teleop52.7

23.3Endgame22.7

25Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	5
teleop	63	7
endgame	13	3
foul	0	5
total	110	20

Result

Final score

110 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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