FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.53 – 234.26

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.2 ±11.1

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 5.58Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 54.72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 37.23Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.6 ±10.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 104.27Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 106.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 23.72Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4505, 11318, 623

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 11318, 623

Auto

23.3 24%

Teleop

44.8 47%

Endgame

27.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 614, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 686, 614, 2963

Auto

47.9 22%

Teleop

122.8 56%

Endgame

46.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.5pts

Blue projected score234.3pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.7
Score range: 72–260
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.2Season APEX483.6

23.3Auto47.9

44.8Teleop122.8

27.9Endgame46.9

25Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	67
teleop	54	26
endgame	46	17
foul	0	15
total	132	125

Result

Final score

132 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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