FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.07 – 65.53

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.9 ±10.7

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 171.11Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 127.68Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 17.28Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.6 ±11

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 19.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 3.81Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 42.58Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 1629, 1915

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 1629, 1915

Auto

52.1 16%

Teleop

181.4 57%

Endgame

84.9 27%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1719, 10679, 6863

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 10679, 6863

Auto

15.3 24%

Teleop

32.3 50%

Endgame

17.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score316.1pts

Blue projected score65.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 250.5
Score range: 40–342
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.9Season APEX232.6

52.1Auto15.3

181.4Teleop32.3

84.9Endgame17.4

10Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	22
teleop	118	28
endgame	35	25
foul	5	0
total	222	75

Result

Final score

222 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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