FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.09 – 294.13

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 47 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 55.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -11.65Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 55.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340 ±11.2

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 22.41Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 149.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 122.31Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 2914, 1418

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 2914, 1418

Auto

19.0 20%

Teleop

47.5 50%

Endgame

27.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2849, 2199, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 2199, 3748

Auto

50.8 17%

Teleop

171.4 59%

Endgame

69.6 24%

Strengths

· 2199 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score294.1pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195
Score range: 73–320
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.8Season APEX340

19Auto50.8

47.5Teleop171.4

27.8Endgame69.6

76Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	53
teleop	69	106
endgame	37	56
foul	0	0
total	114	215

Result

Final score

114 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 47 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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