FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.52 – 87.26

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.3 ±13.3

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 5.96Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 28.07Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 6.49Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±12.2

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 45.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 27.69Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 14.51Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 1446, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 1446, 10449

Auto

12.3 27%

Teleop

19.5 43%

Endgame

13.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 339, 8622, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 8622, 8726

Auto

15.3 19%

Teleop

51.1 64%

Endgame

13.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.5pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 15–113
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.3Season APEX180.8

12.3Auto15.3

19.5Teleop51.1

13.9Endgame13.3

43Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	12	10
endgame	11	19
foul	0	15
total	34	64

Result

Final score

34 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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