FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.67 – 170.34

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.3 ±13.9

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 5.88Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 22.67Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 22.12Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±11.7

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 105.75Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 49.42Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 15.17Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2912, 7770, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2912, 7770, 11211

Auto

18.6 34%

Teleop

17.6 33%

Endgame

17.9 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 4541, 3714

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 4541, 3714

Auto

42.7 28%

Teleop

81.8 54%

Endgame

28.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score170.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.7
Score range: 25–196
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.3Season APEX305.4

18.6Auto42.7

17.6Teleop81.8

17.9Endgame28.2

41Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	54
teleop	5	135
endgame	0	49
foul	0	0
total	16	238

Result

Final score

16 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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