FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.71 – 198.28

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.9 ±12.1

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 56.85Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 41.13Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -1.27Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±10.5

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 113.88Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -3.2Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 87.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1418, 6863, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1418, 6863, 1111

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

44.8 52%

Endgame

26.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3748, 4505, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3748, 4505, 1727

Auto

30.8 15%

Teleop

114.0 56%

Endgame

57.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.7pts

Blue projected score198.3pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.6
Score range: 71–224
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.9Season APEX343.6

14.9Auto30.8

44.8Teleop114

26.7Endgame57

106Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	42
teleop	65	143
endgame	12	71
foul	0	10
total	100	266

Result

Final score

100 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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