FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.4 – 316.3

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11.7

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 55.48Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 15.11Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 98.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.9 ±10.7

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 19.7Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 157.35Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 139.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1389, 1915, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1389, 1915, 8592

Auto

35.9 20%

Teleop

102.4 58%

Endgame

37.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1446, 836, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1446, 836, 2199

Auto

54.1 17%

Teleop

175.9 57%

Endgame

80.2 26%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.4pts

Blue projected score316.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.9
Score range: 143–342
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.5Season APEX511.9

35.9Auto54.1

102.4Teleop175.9

37.3Endgame80.2

18Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	70
teleop	115	232
endgame	72	100
foul	0	5
total	233	407

Result

Final score

233 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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