FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.3 – 90.92

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.9 ±11.2

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 86.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 6.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 3.79Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.8 ±12.4

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 59.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 5.06Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 26.45Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 2912, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1727, 2912, 10679

Auto

23.5 23%

Teleop

54.0 52%

Endgame

25.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11318, 10449, 7770

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11318, 10449, 7770

Auto

25.7 26%

Teleop

38.2 39%

Endgame

35.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score90.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 65–123
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.9Season APEX259.8

23.5Auto25.7

54Teleop38.2

25.6Endgame35.2

29Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	50	48
endgame	48	10
foul	0	5
total	115	84

Result

Final score

115 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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