FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.22 – 111.97

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±11.7

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 49.03Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.43Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 15.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±11.7

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 21.12Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 46.02Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 44.83Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 11211, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 11211, 1719

Auto

20.9 28%

Teleop

38.8 52%

Endgame

15.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2963, 4541, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 4541, 339

Auto

21.8 21%

Teleop

62.2 59%

Endgame

20.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score112pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 58–138
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.6Season APEX228.7

20.9Auto21.8

38.8Teleop62.2

15.4Endgame20.6

35Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	51	62
endgame	57	27
foul	0	35
total	124	145

Result

Final score

124 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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