FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.68 – 99.79

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.5 ±12.4

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 34.86Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 107.02Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 10.8Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.8 ±11.7

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 10.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -8.09Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 97.77Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8622, 614, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 614, 11350

Auto

25.8 18%

Teleop

76.2 53%

Endgame

41.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3714, 1111, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 1111, 686

Auto

34.5 33%

Teleop

49.6 48%

Endgame

19.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.7pts

Blue projected score99.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.9
Score range: 74–179
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.5Season APEX395.8

25.8Auto34.5

76.2Teleop49.6

41.1Endgame19.4

33Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	33
teleop	92	35
endgame	10	22
foul	30	60
total	159	150

Result

Final score

159 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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