FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.03 – 206.49

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.6 ±11.2

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 26.22Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 155.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 112.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±11.7

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 45.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 18.52Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 142.26Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7770, 836, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

294 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7770, 836, 3748

Auto

55.5 19%

Teleop

162.3 56%

Endgame

73.8 25%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 623, 2912, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 2912, 1629

Auto

38.3 19%

Teleop

125.8 61%

Endgame

40.8 20%

Strengths

· 1629 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294pts

Blue projected score206.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.5
Score range: 180–320
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.6Season APEX299.5

55.5Auto38.3

162.3Teleop125.8

73.8Endgame40.8

62Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	51
teleop	157	55
endgame	102	13
foul	15	0
total	312	119

Result

Final score

312 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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