FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.59 – 159.05

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±9.8

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 124.88Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 50.64Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 7.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.3 ±10.5

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 73.35Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 50.97Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 34.73Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 9033, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 9033, 1719

Auto

45.8 26%

Teleop

109.8 62%

Endgame

21.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11318, 2377, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11318, 2377, 8726

Auto

39.9 26%

Teleop

74.6 49%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.6pts

Blue projected score159pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.5
Score range: 133–209
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.7Season APEX325.3

45.8Auto39.9

109.8Teleop74.6

21.2Endgame36.9

49Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	23
teleop	142	50
endgame	42	37
foul	20	0
total	258	110

Result

Final score

258 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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