FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.84 – 50.1

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

331 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.1 ±10.7

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 9.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 102.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 164.82Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.1 ±13.3

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.29Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 19.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 10.91Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2849, 686, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 686, 836

Auto

46.9 17%

Teleop

156.0 58%

Endgame

68.4 25%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11211, 2534, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 2534, 2963

Auto

13.5 28%

Teleop

16.1 34%

Endgame

17.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score276.8pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.7
Score range: 22–305
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.1Season APEX113.1

46.9Auto13.5

156Teleop16.1

68.4Endgame17.8

0Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	7
teleop	186	6
endgame	104	0
foul	0	0
total	331	13

Result

Final score

331 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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