FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

10.63 – 45.5

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.2 ±12.8

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 1.09Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 13.53Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -3.99Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.6 ±12.2

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 58.39Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 3.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -16.87Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 11211, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 11211, 10449

Auto

6.3 61%

Teleop

-6.0 0%

Endgame

10.0 97%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1389, 11350, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1389, 11350, 1111

Auto

16.0 37%

Teleop

8.3 19%

Endgame

19.3 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score10.6pts

Blue projected score45.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.9
Score range: -15–72
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 143.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.2Season APEX235.6

6.3Auto16

-6Teleop8.3

10Endgame19.3

85Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	17	48
endgame	19	8
foul	0	0
total	52	77

Result

Final score

52 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.