FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.95 – 192.55

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.5 ±11.2

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 29.39Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 112.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 46.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±11.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 103.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 54.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 34.29Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1915, 614, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1915, 614, 4541

Auto

35.5 19%

Teleop

117.7 64%

Endgame

29.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 1418, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 686, 1418, 8622

Auto

29.0 16%

Teleop

102.0 56%

Endgame

52.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189pts

Blue projected score192.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.6
Score range: 163–219
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.5Season APEX374.9

35.5Auto29

117.7Teleop102

29.6Endgame52

33Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	29
teleop	66	108
endgame	40	59
foul	0	0
total	144	196

Result

Final score

144 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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