FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.3 – 0

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.7 ±10.5

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -0.79Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 130.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 84.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.4 ±13.3

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 7.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -2.29Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -18.28Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 1629, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 1629, 8592

Auto

41.4 18%

Teleop

143.3 64%

Endgame

40.8 18%

Strengths

· 1629 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3714, 4505, 2914

/ 100 compat

Projected

-13.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 4505, 2914

Auto

11.7 0%

Teleop

-29.7 100%

Endgame

3.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.3pts

Blue projected score-13.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214.3
Score range: -26–240
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.7Season APEX154.4

41.4Auto11.7

143.3Teleop-29.7

40.8Endgame3.9

17Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	12
teleop	144	0
endgame	64	0
foul	15	5
total	296	17

Result

Final score

296 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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