FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.68 – 191.53

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.6 ±13.3

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 23.55Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 23.94Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 10.19Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.7 ±11.2

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 61.89Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 92.28Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 37.36Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2963, 6863, 1446

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 6863, 1446

Auto

10.0 16%

Teleop

20.6 34%

Endgame

30.1 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 339, 1727, 2849

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 1727, 2849

Auto

26.9 14%

Teleop

112.4 59%

Endgame

52.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.7pts

Blue projected score191.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.8
Score range: 32–218
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.6Season APEX306.7

10Auto26.9

20.6Teleop112.4

30.1Endgame52.3

75Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	59	101
endgame	24	42
foul	15	0
total	120	161

Result

Final score

120 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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