FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.54 – 206.16

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±11.7

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX -1.09Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 49.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 28.9Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.9 ±11.7

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 36.07Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 119.32Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 50.77Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 4541, 7770

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 4541, 7770

Auto

23.2 33%

Teleop

36.6 52%

Endgame

11.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8622, 2199, 623

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 2199, 623

Auto

35.7 18%

Teleop

117.2 58%

Endgame

48.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.5pts

Blue projected score206.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.6
Score range: 52–232
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.6Season APEX292.9

23.2Auto35.7

36.6Teleop117.2

11Endgame48.2

48Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	47
teleop	34	124
endgame	19	42
foul	0	10
total	80	223

Result

Final score

80 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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