FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.64 – 56.34

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.3 ±11.2

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 135.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 8.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 64.19Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.9 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 51.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 6.93Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -1.89Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 3714, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 3714, 1389

Auto

31.2 15%

Teleop

129.8 63%

Endgame

46.4 22%

Strengths

· 1629 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 11350, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 11350, 2534

Auto

21.4 47%

Teleop

13.1 29%

Endgame

10.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.6pts

Blue projected score56.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.3
Score range: 30–234
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.3Season APEX166.9

31.2Auto21.4

129.8Teleop13.1

46.4Endgame10.7

14Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	14
teleop	106	29
endgame	43	28
foul	0	0
total	186	71

Result

Final score

186 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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