FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.53 – 211.03

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±12.8

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 91.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 42.41Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -13.09Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.8 ±9.9

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 89.66Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 47.93Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 73.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8592, 2849, 2914

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 2849, 2914

Auto

26.9 21%

Teleop

57.4 46%

Endgame

41.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 1418, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1727, 1418, 11318

Auto

34.3 17%

Teleop

109.1 53%

Endgame

64.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.5pts

Blue projected score211pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.5
Score range: 95–237
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 142.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.3Season APEX449.8

26.9Auto34.3

57.4Teleop109.1

41.3Endgame64.4

31Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	33
teleop	44	124
endgame	0	64
foul	0	5
total	76	226

Result

Final score

76 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.