FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.83 – 115.27

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±13.3

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -19.82Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 12.85Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 31.8Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.9 ±12.2

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 51.39Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 20.73Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 43.15Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1111, 1446, 1915

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 1446, 1915

Auto

14.0 41%

Teleop

3.3 10%

Endgame

17.0 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9033, 2963, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 2963, 8726

Auto

26.8 26%

Teleop

69.7 67%

Endgame

7.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.8pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.4
Score range: -1–141
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.6Season APEX164.9

14Auto26.8

3.3Teleop69.7

17Endgame7

79Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	37
teleop	16	51
endgame	17	19
foul	0	0
total	41	107

Result

Final score

41 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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