FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.43 – 81.97

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 81.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±12.8

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -23.26Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -17.57Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 106.26Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±11.7

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX -2.82Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 102.49Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -17.7Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2914, 10449, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2914, 10449, 3748

Auto

12.3 16%

Teleop

42.0 56%

Endgame

20.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11211, 614, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 614, 4505

Auto

23.2 32%

Teleop

48.6 67%

Endgame

0.6 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.4pts

Blue projected score82pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 39–108
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.3Season APEX279.7

12.3Auto23.2

42Teleop48.6

20.3Endgame0.6

125Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	31
teleop	41	90
endgame	42	62
foul	0	0
total	127	183

Result

Final score

127 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 81.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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