FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.26 – 158.11

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.1 ±9.3

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 112.44Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 69.82Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 88Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.2 ±10.5

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 44.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 124.49Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -10.52Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 11318, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 11318, 8592

Auto

49.2 17%

Teleop

172.1 61%

Endgame

61.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 339, 836, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 836, 2534

Auto

13.6 9%

Teleop

95.2 64%

Endgame

41.0 27%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score270.3pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.1
Score range: 133–295
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.1Season APEX390.2

49.2Auto13.6

172.1Teleop95.2

61.3Endgame41

147Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	51
teleop	144	143
endgame	81	61
foul	0	5
total	303	260

Result

Final score

303 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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